LOCATION Indera Kayangan Ballroom, The Empire Hotel & Country Club, Jerudong

SPEAKER His Excellency mr Rob Fenn, British High Commissioner to Brunei Darussalam

EVENT ADB Forum: The Economics of climate change in Southeast Asia: What is at stake?

DATE 29/10/2009

Yang Berhormat Pehin  Orang Kaya Seri Dewa Major General (Retired) Dato Seri Pahlawan  Awang Haji Mohammad bin Haji Daud, Minister of Energy.

Distinguished representatives of the Asian Development Bank, Diplomatic Colleagues, fellow inhabitants of this fragile planet, thank you for coming.

This is not a British show. The brains are provided by the ADB, who wrote the report on the “Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia”. The brawn – if Dato Ong permits me to pursue this metaphor – has been provided by the Brunei Economic Development Board, whose powers of organisation know no bounds.  Though BEDB also provide intellectual input to Brunei’s stance on climate change, since it is closely connected with the debate about economic diversification, foreign direct investment, long-term prosperity “beyond petroleum”.

I can’t even claim to have provided the icing on this cake, since our distinguished guest of honour – the Minister of Energy – does that, and more. Pehin, we are deeply grateful for your support of this event; proving, by your presence, that Brunei wants to be “part of the answer” on “both sides of the carbon equation” – a premier producer of oil and gas, and a long-term planner for the low-carbon future we must all embrace.  

I’ll provide my excuse for standing here in just a second. But I wanted first to underscore one point. Today’s focus on climate change is not a witch-hunt, and – even if it were – it would hold no fear for oil and gas-producers. The future of our children depends on how – as a species – we consume energy; and whether we can find smarter ways to live.

We must keep our emission of greenhouse gasses within margins which are manageable, primarily by the eco-system services provided by rainforests such as those here in Brunei. By his commitment to the Heart of Borneo, and his stewardship of this nation’s biodiversity - reiterated this week in the form of an offer to host a conference on the Heart of Borneo and the Coral Triangle - HM The Sultan has pointed the way.

Time, however, is short. The physical impacts of climate change are becoming more widespread and severe. And the worst is yet to come.  Unless we act, there is a 75% chance that global temperature will rise by 2-3 degrees over the next 50 years. The likely consequences will include sea-level rise, extreme weather, falling crop yields and a massive displacement of populations.

Practical examples of the physical impacts are easy to find. The recent forest fires in Australia and droughts in China are cases in point. Increasingly violent cyclones, typhoons and hurricanes will hurt millions more than before – including right here in Southeast Asia. Witness the impact of Typhoon Ketsana on the Philippines, Vietnam and Cambodia.  On a smaller scale, but traumatic nonetheless, this spring Brunei experienced its worst flooding for more than 30 years.  

In just 25 years, the Himalayan glaciers which are the ultimate source of water for 1.5 billion people could be gone. The Red Cross estimates that in 2001, for the first time, the number of environmental refugees was greater than the number of people fleeing war and conflict.

The international community will meet in Copenhagen in December to agree a new treaty to replace the Kyoto Protocol. The UK is working hard to ensure success. We want an agreement that is ambitious, by limiting warming to 2 degrees Celsius; an agreement that is effective, by driving investment in clean energy, sustainable forestry and adaptation; and an agreement that is fair, by providing sufficient finance, technology and capacity building for developing countries to take action on both mitigation and adaptation. The issue of financing is particularly important – which is why the British Prime Minister recently made a range of proposals on the issue, including a working figure of US$100 billion each year for developing countries by 2020.

But while the Copenhagen talks are crucial, those negotiations – and their outcome – need to leap off the page and into the daily decisions of governments and individuals around the world. Together, we must transform our societies and re-wire our economies on a low-carbon basis.

Many Governments realise that action of this kind, besides being the best path to a long-term prosperous, sustainable future also contain short-term economic and social benefits.  But there are those who resist. A common argument is that of cost – that it will cost too much to tackle climate change, and damage economic activity. With this in mind, the UK Government asked Lord Stern, former top economic advisor to the World Bank and to the UK government, to produce a Review of the Economics of Climate Change.

Stern’s 2006 report found that climate change would have a huge impact on the world economy, costing, conservatively, 5% - or potentially as much as 20% - of global GDP. But doing something about climate change now would cost less than 1% of global GDP.

The report had a very positive reception. But its global scope – while good for drawing overall conclusions – was deemed not detailed enough to help individual countries or regions with their economic planning.

This gap has now been filled. In April the Asian Development Bank published a review of the economics of climate change in Southeast Asia. In your handouts this morning, you should find a summary of the report. It followed the methodology used in the Stern Review, but drills down to look at the regional scale and individual countries.

You will also find the CD of a film, “High Stakes”, commissioned by the British government to help communicate the ADB’s findings. It features key personalities from Southeast Asia; illustrates the need for action; and outlines the many possibilities that exist to reduce emissions at low cost.

Like the ADB’s report, this film is full, as they say, of “inconvenient truths”. But I hope you enjoy it nonetheless.

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